IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA 1987- 2014

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ABSTRA CT

The  degree  of  volatility  of exchange  rate  movements  has  led policy   makers  and researchers  to investigate  the nature and extent of the impact of such movements on growth.  This study  examines  the impact  of exchange  rate volatility on the economic growth in Nigeria.  The thesis offers empirical evidence on the impact of exchange rate volatility  on Nigeria’s  economic growth.  A  review of literature shows  that exchange rate  volatility  can  have  either  positive   or  negative   effects   on  economic  growth depending  on the parameter  used. The study  used annualized  time series data for the period  1987-2014  to  examine  the  impact  of exchange  rate  volatility  on  economic growth in Nigeria using real gross domestic product growth rate as proxyfor economic growth.  The data sources were mainly from  Central Bank Nigeria  Statistical Bulletin (various years).The study builds on absolute percentage change measure for exchange rate volatility  measurement.   The  unit root tests employed are based  on the work  of Dickey-Fuller.  Application ofJohansen  multivariate procedure was to obtain the trace and maximum eigenvalue  likelihood ratio test statistics.  The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports  and imports were also examined so as to determine the extent to which this volatility can influence these variables via growth.  For a more robust model, inflation,  a determinant of economic growth  was also included  to examine  its effect. The empirical analyses began with the testing of thefourformulated hypotheses for the thesis. From thefindings,  exchange rate volatility had a negative and significant impact on the economic growth  in Nigeria  within the period  studied.  The study  also found a negative and significant  casual relationship  between  inflation  and economic growth. Exchange   rate  volatility  exerted  positive   and  significant   impact  on  exports,   and negative and significant  impact on imports.  This indicates that higher  exchange  rate risk  encourages  exports  and  discourages  imports,   and  also  discourages  economic growth.  Although  economic  theories suggest  that export oriented  economies  tend to grow faster than import dependent ones,  yet the Nigeria  case was different  during the period studied.  Thus,  the study recommends that Nigeria should increase her economy diversification by encouraging production  and exportation ofprimary commodities and discouraging importation ofgoods that can be locallyproduced.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1:1      BACKGROUND  TO THE STUDY

Exchange rate lies at the heart of the global financial system and set the terms on which countries trade each other’s goods and services. Exchange rate is a key macroeconomic variable  in the context  of general  economic  policy  making  and  of economic  reform programmes.  Its  management   determines  the  pace  at  which  a  country’s  economic activities will grow.  Thus the analysis of exchange rate management  and the variability associated  with  exchange  rate  has  been  a recurring  topic  in  international  monetary economics. According to Chou (2000), the debate on exchange rate management transcended  the collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s to the emergence ofBretton Wood System of adjustable  peg from the 1940s through other various exchange rates. This debate on exchange rate volatility and uncertainty has long divided economists. At one end, the argument  supports  the fixed exchange  rate while the other, the floating system.  The Nigerian  economy  has been visibly  distressed  in the different  phases  of exchange  rate  management   (ERM);  each  coming  with  its  own,  possible  problem. According  to Idika  (1998)  frequent  changes  in foreign  exchange  policies  caused  by unstable  political  environment  have prevented  these policies  from coming full circle. Exchange rate stability, which is essential for growth is influenced greatly by the appropriate policy mix by governments  in their quest to attain macroeconomic  targets. The  term  stability  does  not  connote  static  condition  but  a  situation  that  permits variability in response to changes in the market fundamentals. Examples are changes in relative prices,  international  terms of trade and other factors that impinge on the price competitiveness  of the  domestic  market  agents’  products.  In fact,  the exchange  rate arrangement   that  emerged   after  the  collapse   of Bretton-Wood   has  always  been criticized  on the  grounds  that  it does  not  have  a mechanism  to  reduce  or regulate excessive  rate volatility  among the major  currencies(dollar,  yen and deutsche  mark), which is the G-3 currency  ( Gerardo and Felipe, 2001)

With the move  from  fixed to flexible  exchange  rates  in Europe  in  1973,  there was increasing   concern   about   effects   of exchange   rate  variability   on  trade.   Flexible

exchange  rate that followed  the collapse  of the Bretton  Wood  System  is of concern  to economists  and policy makers  about the effect  of exchange rate volatility  on economic growth (see Williamson 2001). In a flexible exchange regime, the exchange rate is determined  directly by market  forces, and is liable to fluctuate  as dictated  by changing market  condition  (Isard,   1998).  For  instance,  Oyovw i (2012)  evaluated  in his  studies that the flexible exchange rate produced  a significant volatility and uncertainty  effect  in the exchange rate of Naira.

Exchange  rate instability,  the volatility  of international  capital movements  and bubbles in asset prices  are all  closely  interlinked.  Wilson  and Ren  (2007)  argued  that in  1997

Asia  crisis,  for  example,  the  rush  to  invest  in  “Asian  miracle”  led    to  the  influx  of capital which led to a boom in share and property prices, and also upward movement  on exchange   rates.  A  change   in  sentiment   led  to  reduction   of capital  movements,  a collapse  in asset prices  and  a sharp  fall in exchange  rates. According  to Wilson  et .al (2007), following  the aftermath  of the Asian  financial  crisis,  the issue of the choice of exchange rate regime for the East Asian Countries re-emerged.

Aside  economic  crisis,  exchange  rate  fluctuations  as put  by  Smith (2002)  can have  a positive  effect  on  industrial  output  which  also  promotes  employm ent  from  industry’s point  of view: the two  objectives  are that rates  should  be  competitive  and  stable.  The most striking issue to the economists  is the fluctuation  of rates at the times of financial crisis,  but  equally  serious  are the effects  of continuing  fluctuations  and misalignm ents of rates  on  industry  and  employm ent  and  in  the  longer  run  on  both  developed  and underdeveloped  economies.

Moreover,  changes in exchange rates also have powerful-effects on imports and exports of the countries  in question  through  effects  on relative  prices  of goods. Mordi  (2006) posits that the Nigerian  economy  is highly dependent  on import  for both consumption and production. Usually  all the major  industrial raw materials  are sourced  from abroad while  the  country  depends  on foreign  supply  for intermediate  and  capital  goods.  The major  non-oil  exports  products  are basically  primary  produce  whose  prices  have been on the  downward  trend  and are exogenously  determined  making  exports  to be  highly inelastic.  These exports are slow in responding to exchange rate adjustments.

According  to World  Bank  (2003), research  has shown that many  oil producing  nations are exposed to variations  in exchange rate due their large oil wealth.  This variation will then act as tax on investment in traded goods production notably agriculture and manufacturing which have an adverse impact on growth. For instance, since the oil discoveries  in the  early  1970s made  Nigeria  one  of the world’s  top  ten exporters, the country’s  over-dependency  on oil as the chief source of revenue resulted  in negligence of non-oil exports  for foreign  exchange  earnings.  Oil accounts  for about 90 per cent of total exports  and about four-fifths of total government revenue  while non-oil per capita GDP   has   been   falling   dramatically   since   the   early   1970.   The   displacement   of agricultural   exports  by  crude  oil  exports   in  the  early   1970s  as  the  major   foreign exchange  earner  owing to the sharp  rise in petroleum  prices; enhanced  official foreign exchange receipts.

Jin  (2008)  showed  that  the  implications  of over-dependence   on  export  of oil  is that economy  is highly  prone  to  external  shocks  in that  any crash  in oil price  will  lead to decline  in foreign  exchange  earnings  and  destabilizing  effects  on  exchange  rate.  This shift in relative  prices would  lead to a corresponding  shift in the allocation  of domestic resources  and  move  economic  structure  away  from  the  production   of export  goods (agriculture),  and into services sectors.

To explain high exchange rate volatility  in oil rich countries (ORCg),  it has been argued that countries with many interest groups competing  for the resources’  rents are likely to overspend  in  good  years,  and  under-adjust   in bad  years.  Each  interest  group  tries  to over  exploit  windfall  gains  in an  attempt  to  at  least partially  offload  efforts  (see  the “voracity effect”, Lane and Tornell  1995). Federal  states like Nigeria  are thought to be especially  vulnerable  to what  amounts  to  an equivalent  of overgrazing  the  commons. An   expenditure   behaviour   that   leads   to   overspending    in   good   days   and   under adjustment  in bad days may end up with an economy with even higher volatility  than is to be expected on the basis of the volatility  in its revenue  streams alone as suggested by Hamilton  (1983).  There  is possibly  high  exchange  rate  volatility  in oil rich  countries (ORCs): an explanation  that starts from the surprising  fact that many oil rich countries (ORCs)  have  indeed  landed  themselves  in  debt  problems,  their  oil  wealth notwithstanding.

Thus  volatility   in  exchange  rate  is  harmful  to  economic  growth,  a  problem   that  is comm on in less developed  countries  (LDCs) because  of the extreme  volatility  of their income  streams.  Nigeria’s   experience   so  far  indicates  that  managing   exchange  rate volatility   in  a  poor  institutional  environm ent  is  difficult.  The  poor  macroeconomic environm ent of the past largely contributed  to the problem  in the external  sector of the economy.  For example, Nigeria was ranked as the third most volatile economy  in terms of trade volatility out of 90 countries in a World Bank (2003) study covering the period

1961-2000.  This  shows  that  the  impact  of high  volatility  on  output  and  growth  was further  worsened  by an  inflexible  real  exchange  rate  policy  in Nigeria.  This  is to  say that  if expenditure  is highly  volatile,  a flexible  real  exchange  can  at  least prevent  or reduce   impact  on  output  volatility   and  growth.   This  is  because   high   expenditure volatility   requires   exchange   rate   flexibility   to   accomm odate   downturn   effects   on growth.

Obadan  (1998)  further  opines  that  failure  by  the  Federal  Governm ent  of Nigeria  to adjust  the  exchange  rate  to  the  decline  in  expenditure  necessitated  by  declining  oil prices  and  more  difficult  access  to  external  finance,  resulted  in unemploym ent  rising instead.  In the end,  the oil price collapse,  high interest rates and public debt problems  as of early  1980s, made  high  nominal  exchange  rate  unsustainable  and massive  nominal and   real   exchange   rate   depreciation   followed.   Thus   exporters   following   official exchange   rates effectively  would be faced with a high tax further discouraging  non-oil exports.  For  instance,  in the  early  1970s,  most  economic  agents  had  to  patronize  the Central Bank of Nigeria for foreign exchange  allocation due to instability in the rates.

In  an  effort  to  highly  manage  the  exchange  rate,  the  Federal  governm ent  of Nigeria rationed   foreign   exchange   and   created   multiple   windows   for   foreign   exchange transaction,  which  created  a parallel  market  for  foreign  exchange.  Also  as  stated  by Central Bank  of Nigeria  (2006),  the existence  of the parallel  market  has continued  to foster  speculative  activities  in  the  foreign  exchange  market.  Throughout   the  1990s, annual investigation  by the regulatory  authorities  has revealed  significant exchange rate premium  between  the official rate  and the parallel  market  rate  for arbitrage  gains.  For example,  the  parallel  market  premium  was  as high  as 79.2  percent  in February  1992, compared  with 35.5 percent  in  1991  and the internationally  acceptable  standard  of 5.0

percent.  Exporters  that  had  to  surrender  foreign  exchange  at official  rates  effectively faced  a high tax  further  discouraging  non-oil  exports.  This was  not enough  to resolve the imbalance:     an inflationary  process  further  fuelled  by substantial deficit financing through money issue by the public sector brought about further real exchange rate appreciation.  As  a result  while  the  nominal  exchange  rate  remained  relatively  stable, the black market premium  reached  330 percent when oil prices collapsed.

Aghion (2006) has shown empirically that high exchange rate volatility slows down productivity    and   growth   by   substantial   margin    in   countries   with   a   relatively underdeveloped   financial  sector,  like  Nigeria.  In  their  sample  study,  Hausman   and Rigobon   (2002)  showed  that  a  50%  increase  in  volatility   slows  down  productivity growth  by  33%  on  average.  And  there  is  substantial  evidence  that  oil rich  countries have more  volatile  economics  than non-oil rich  countries.  Thus,  there is logic to focus on exchange rate volatility  as an explanatory  factor for Nigeria’s poor growth record.

It  is  also  evident  that  Nigeria’s  economy  is  struggling  to  leverage  the  country’s  vast wealth  in  fossil  fuels  in order  to  displace  the  crushing  poverty  that  affects  about  57 percent  of its population.  Economists  refer to the co-existence  of vast wealth  in natural resources  and  extreme  personal  poverty  in  developing  countries  like  Nigeria  as  the “resource  curse”  as  shown  in  appendix  A  (see  Manzano  and  Rigobon,  2001,  Budina and Wijnbergen  2006).

Thus,  prior to the adoption of the structural Adjustment  Programme  in September  1986, Nigeria’s  exchange  rate  system  was  administratively   managed  (adjustable  peg).  The country’s currency experienced  a continuous  appreciation  ( except for few years), amidst a noticeable  macroeconomic  disequilibrium  reflected  in the bourgeoning  non-oil  trade deficit,   balance   of paym ents  crisis,   and  fiscal  deficits.   Even  when   a  free-floating exchange  rate  system  was  adopted,  the  monetary  authorities  were  criticized  for  not allowing  the  market  fundamentals   to  determine  the  operations   of the  market.   The genuineness  of these allegations  is reflected  in the ever widening  premium  between the official  and parallel  exchange  rates.  This measure  and other  subsequent  measures  did little or nothing to bring stability in exchange rate.

Thus,   following   the   quest   for   corrective   measures   of  the   exchange   management strategies in Nigeria  and the need to ward off distortions in the foreign exchange market various  modifications  have  been  made  to  the  institutional  framework  with  a view  to achieving   a   realistic   exchange   rate   objective.   That   is   from   Second-tier   Foreign Exchange  Market  (FEM),  Dutch  Action  System  (DAS),  and  currently  the  Wholesale Dutch  Action  System  (WDAS).  All  the  aforementioned  regimes  will  be  discussed  in detail in the next chapter.

1.2      STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM

A lot has been said about the management  of exchange rate in Nigeria  following the various   regimes   of exchange   rate  policy,  accomplishments   have  been   less  than satisfactory.  Since  the  generalized  fixed  exchange  rate  regime  and  adoption  of a generalized  floating  system  by  the  industrialized  countries  in  1973,  most  countries including Nigeria,  have experimented  with various types of exchange rate arrangement ranging from the peg system to weighted currency basket to managed floating and more recently to the monetary zone arrangement  (see Mordi 2006).  Inconsistent management of the various exchange rate policy/regimes  adopted so far by the country to help check volatility   in  exchange   rates   has  jeopardized   the   overall   macroeconomic   policy objectives.

According  to  Mordi  (2006),  once  an  exchange  rate  is  not  fixed,  it  is  subject  to variations,  thus  floating  exchange  rates  tend  to  be  more  volatile.  The  degree  of volatility and the extent of stability maintained  are affected by economic fundamentals. Thus strong economic fundamentals are meant to produce favourable economic environment.   Friedman   (1953)   supported   this  argument   in  his  thesis  noted  that ” … instability of exchange rate is a symptom of instability  in the underlying  economic structure … “

The naira exchange  rate has been  fluctuating  since the introduction  of the  Structural Adjustment  Programme  (SAP) in 1986. The Nigerian  situation  since SAP has mostly been  characterized   by  increasing   demand   which  outstripped   supply,  contributing generally to the continuous  depreciation  of the naira.  The SAP was designed  to deal with  the  underlying  imbalances  in the Nigerian  economy  following  the  collapse  of international  oil market.  This phenomenon  of excess  demand  for foreign  exchange  in relation  to  supply  has  contributed   to  the  dwindling  fortunes  of the  naira  in  all  the foreign  exchange  markets. Also  weak production  base  and undiversified  nature  of the economy are the factors that led to the depreciation  ofNaira.

The  country’s  over  dependency   on  oil  as  the  main  source  of revenue  resulted   in negligence  of non  oil  exports  for  foreign  exchange  earnings  in the  early1970’s.  The enormous  foreign  exchange  earnings  from  crude  oil exports  encouraged  the  massive importation  of finished goods and services.  The implication  of this over dependency  on export of oil is that the Nigeria  economy  is highly prone to external shocks in that any crash in the oil price will lead to decline in foreign exchange earnings, and destabilizing effects  on  macroeconomic   variables  such  as  exchange  rate,  gross  domestic  product, interest rate,  and inflation rate.  According  to Obadan  (1998),  adverse foreign exchange rate  regimes  adopted  so far have  affected  the Nigerian  economy  over  the  years.  The combined  effects  of dwindling  in price of oil and the volatility  in exchange  rate due to inconsistent exchange rate regimes has led to constant depreciation  of naira.

Again,  most  import  dependent  economies  like Nigeria  face the  problem  of exchange rate  volatility  because  the  economy’s technological  base  is weak,  industrial  activities tended to be organized to depend  largely on imported  inputs. Nigeria relies  so much on revenue  from  oil exports,  but  massively  imports  refined  petroleum  and  other  related products.  The prevailing  import-dependent  industrial structure became unsustainable  as the mounting  import bills could not be matched by current  export earnings (Ojo  1998). The  various  monetary  policy  reforms  and  exchange  rate  adjustments  failed  to  restore stability in exchange rate and maintain a low and stable inflation rate.

Despite  the various  measures  adopted  and strategies for implementation, instability  in exchange  rate has persisted. Gerardo  and Felipe  (2001) have argued  that G-3 currency instability  have  been  at  root  of some  of the  currency  and  financial  crisis  that  have affected  several developing  countries.  Caballero  and Corbo  (1989),  for example,  show that  higher   volatility   of the  real  exchange   rate   hurt   exports   in  a  large   group  of developing  countries,  thus  affecting  economic  growth.  Economic  theory  is ambiguous on the impacts  of increased  exchange  rate variations,  some models predict negative  or

positive  impacts  depending  on the key parameters  used. Many other authors  have  also attempted  to investigate  whether  exchange  volatility  depresses  trade  flows in different periods  and  for  different   countries.  This  literature  has  been  surveyed  by  Mckenzie (1999),   who   concludes   that   empirical   results   on   this   matter   have   so   far   been inconclusive.   In  other   words,   theoretical   and   empirical   work   on  the   subject   has produced  mixed  results.  This  study  attempts  to  explore  the  impact  of exchange  rate volatility on the economic growth of this country Nigeria.

1.3       OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main objective  of this study is to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. To achieve this, the study strives to fulfil the following objectives:

1.           To  ascertain  the  magnitude   of the  impact  of exchange  rate  volatility   on economic growth in Nigeria.

11.         To assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation rate in Nigeria.

111.         To establish whether  there is a significant  relationship  between  exchange rate volatility and exports in Nigeria.

Iv.      To determine what the effect of exchange rate volatility on imports in Nigeria.

1.4       RESEARCH QUESTIONS

To achieve the objectives of the study,  these are used to provide answers to following questions:

1.         To what extent does exchange rate volatility impact on economic growth in

Nigeria?

11.         To what extent does exchange rate volatility affect inflation in Nigeria?

111.         How far has exchange rate volatility had a significant relationship  on exports in

Nigeria?

1v.       How far does exchange rate volatility have a positive  and significant  effect  on imports in Nigeria?

1.5       RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

In line with objectives, the following a-priori assumptions were made:

Ho,:   Exchange  rates  volatility  does  not  have  a  positive  and  significant  impact  on economic growth in Nigeria.

He:   Exchange  rate  volatility  does  not  have  a  positive  and  significant  impact  on inflation in Nigeria.

Hos:  Exchange  rate volatility  does not have a positive  and significant  relationship  on exports in Nigeria.

Ho±:  Exchange rate volatility does not have a positive and significant impact on imports in Nigeria.

1.6       SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of this research work was limited to the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria only and it covers the period of 1987 to 2014.

1.7       SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

An  analytical  investigation  of the  impact  of exchange  rate  volatility  on  economic growth in Nigeria is of great significance to the Nigerian Government, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the market dealers in Nigeria.  This study will also be of benefit to the following other groups. These groups include:

1.  Policymakers and Monetary Authorities.

First, this study will be of use to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and policy makers in order to maintain relative  stability in the foreign exchange market. For example, to understand  the impact  of monetary  policies  on the major  macroeconomic  indicators such as exchange rate and inflation, it is necessary to analyze variation in exchange rate movements within a time frame. An appropriate policy mix is important to attain some given macroeconomic  policy objectives  of exchange  rate  stability, economic  growth, employment and external variability.  It is evident that the management  of the exchange rate is vested in the Central Bank of Nigeria,  and thus Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected  to help policy makers  realize that exchange  rate management  without  the necessary co-ordination of macroeconomic  policies is not enough to solve the problems of macroeconomic  imbalances in Nigeria.

2.   Private and Public Sector Operators.

Secondly, exchange rate volatility is important not only from the perceptive of the CBN but also from the view point of private sector operators.  These private sector operators are also  concerned  about  exchange  rate  fluctuations  because  of its  impact  on their portfolios,  which may result  in capital gains  or losses.  This study will be of help to them because  the importance  of maintaining  a stable real exchange  rate at a realistic level is that it gives investor confidence to plan on creating wealth by exporting or by producing  import-substitutes  that  can really  compete  with  imports.  Exchange  rate  is intricately  related  to  economic  growth,  exchange  rate  is  the  price  of money  and influences  export  and  import  in various  ways.  Higher  exchange  rate  means  lower imports and higher exports.  Lower imports imply conservation  of the foreign reserve, while more exports imply increase  in foreign exchange  earnings and thus,  more fund for investment. Exchange rate stability is therefore imperative for driving growth since it  enable  investors  make  reliable   future  investment  plans.  Instability  can  lead  to unnecessary  fluctuations  in  imports,  exports,  and  cost  of production,  and  makes  it difficult to attract foreign investors. Beside factors such as market opportunity, political risks and the legal environment,  business entities take exchange rate into consideration in  making  investment  decisions.  The  focus  has  always  been  on  the  volatility  of exchange  rates  in  the  foreign  exchange  market  and  its  impact  on  their  business outcomes.

3.  Academia

Thirdly, those in the field of academics will find this work to be of great importance for further researches and references.  The different  empirical results of the previous works on  exchange  rate  volatility   from  different   countries  were  mainly  concerned   with exports.  It then becomes  important  for a detailed  study of exchange rate volatility on economic growth.    The empirical findings of this study will guide researchers working on the area that this study did not cover to draw their conclusions.  The findings will also be added to already existing literature on volatility of exchange rates



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IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA 1987- 2014

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