CORRELATION BETWEEN WEATHER AND COVID19 PANDEMIC IN NIGERIA

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Abstract

This study was on correlation between weather and COVID19 pandemic in Nigeria. Three objectives were raised which included:  To ascertain the correlation between dry season and COVId19 in Nigeria, to ascertain the correlation between raining season and COVID19 in Nigeria and to ascertain the correlation between winter season and COVID19 in Nigeria. A total of 77 responses were received and validated from the enrolled participants where all respondents were drawn from NCDC in Lagos state. Hypothesis was tested using Chi-Square statistical tool (SPSS). The study commended we should observe social distancing.

Chapter one

Introduction

1.1Background of the study

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global pandemic. This infectious respiratory disease was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19 include cough, fever, fatigue, and breathing difficulties, but sore throat, diarrhea, muscle pain, nasal congestion, and new loss of taste or smell may also occur. According to, there were 4,098,018 global confirmed cases and 283,271 confirmed deaths worldwide as of 12th May 2020(WHO, 2020)

Many respiratory viral infectious diseases such as those caused by the human respiratory syncytial virus (RCV), influenza virus, and human coronaviruses show seasonal oscillation and are prevalent during winter. Transmission of influenza was found to increase in colder and drier conditions. In addition, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV, is affected by temperature. The fact that SARS and COVID-19 are caused by coronaviruses and the outbreak of both diseases started during the winter seem to suggest that winter conditions could be promoting transmission of these infections

Several groups have been investigating how weather components like temperature and humidity can influence the transmission and mortality from COVID-19. A study in China that looked at about 429 cities revealed that temperature can change COVID-19 spread, while another study in Jakarta, Indonesia, found that temperature was correlated with COVID-19 transmission, whereas humidity did not have any correlation. However, another study by (Yao et al, 2020)  in 224 Chinese cities found no association between temperature or relative humidity and COVID-19 spread. (Ma et al 202) also investigated COVID-19 mortality and weather in Wuhan, China, and observed that temperature had a positive association with deaths, whereas relative humidity had a negative association with COVID-19 deaths. COVID-19 is still recent and there is limited knowledge on it. More studies are still needed to better understand this novel disease.

Earlier studies have reported that temperature influences the viability and spread of human coronaviruses 229E, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV (Chan et al. 2011; Lin et al. 2020; Van Doremalen et al. 2013). It is assumed that temperature modulates the viability of viruses by affecting the infective properties of viral surface membrane glycoproteins (Moriyama et al. 2020). This may have led to its decreased stability, reduced infection potential, virus inactivation, and evaporation of respiratory droplets expelled from an infected person, and thereby, lowering the transmission rate (Moriyama et al. 2020; Rosario et al. 2020). Furthermore, it is suggested that temperature may affect host susceptibility to viruses such as SARS-CoV2, by modulating the effectiveness of host’s respiratory defense mechanisms against infection; thus impacting viability and transmission (Moriyama et al. 2020; Lin et al. 2020). Based on this background the study wants to investigate correlation between weather and COVID19 pandemic in Nigeria

Statement of the problem

Nigeria witnessed its first case of COVID-19 on the 27th of February 2020. There have been 4,787 confirmed cases and 158 confirmed deaths as of 12th May, 2020. During the COVID-19 first wave in Nigeria, nearly 80,000 confirmed cases of the disease were officially reported by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) (NCDC 2020; Okereke et al. 2021). With less than 2% of the entire population making up the infected category, several factors including the influence of weather determinants are assumed to have resulted in the impacted transmission rate of COVID-19 in the country, especially its role in modulating transmission routes of the virus.

Objective of the study

The objectives of the study are;

  1. To ascertain the correlation between dry season and COVId19 in Nigeria
  2. To ascertain the correlation between raining season and COVID19 in Nigeria
  3. To ascertain the correlation between winter season and COVID19 in Nigeria

Research Hypotheses

The following research hypotheses are formulated;

H1: There is no correlation between dry season and COVId19 in Nigeria

H0: There is correlation between dry season and COVId19 in Nigeria

H2: There is no correlation between raining season and COVID19 in Nigeria

H0: There is correlation between raining season and COVID19 in Nigeria

H3: There is no correlation between winter season and COVID19 in Nigeria

H0: There is correlation between winter season and COVID19 in Nigeria

Significance of the study

The study will be very significant to students, lecturers and the general public. The study will give a clear insight on the correlation between weather and COVID19 pandemic Nigeria. The study educates the general the effect of weather on Covid19 and also on precaution measures to be taken. The study will also serve as a reference to others researcher that will embark on the related topic

Scope of the study

The scope of the study covers correlation between weather and COVID19 pandemic in Nigeria. The study will be limited to NCDC in Lagos state

Limitation of the study

Limitations/constraints are inevitable in carrying out a research work of this nature. However, in the course of this research, the following constraints were encountered thus:

  1. Non-availability of enough resources (finance): A work of this nature is very tasking financially, money had to be spent at various stages of the research such resources which may aid proper carrying out of the study were not adequately available.
  2. Time factor: The time used in carrying out the research work is relatively not enough to bring the best information out of it. However, I hope that the little that is contained in this study will go a long way in solving many greater problems.

Definition of terms

Weather: The state of the air and atmosphere at a particular time and place: the temperature and other outside conditions (such as rain, cloudiness, etc.) at a particular time and place

COVID19: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus



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